After the coup d’état in Madagascar on 12 October 2025, Moscow’s influence in the Indian Ocean island has grown significantly to the point that the new Malagasy President Michaël Randrianirina’s first visit abroad was to Russia, where he met President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin. This is a major shift from previous presidents, whose first trip had always been to Paris.
Following that meeting, Russia has donated a variety of military equipment, including two Mi-8 helicopters and six KamAZ trucks delivered in February to assist following cyclones Fytia and Gezani; several small arms, man pads and at least two BMP-3 armoured vehicles delivered in April. Historically, Madagascar had already purchased a variety of equipment from Russia, including D-30 towed guns, two Mi-8T helicopters, PT-76 tanks and BRDM-2s.
In return, Russia may receive mining contracts. Madagascar is indeed the second largest producer of graphite behind China and a large producer of cobalt. The island sits along important Indian Ocean shipping routes and has significant mineral resources, including graphite, nickel, cobalt, and rare earths. Russia appears interested in military cooperation, political influence, and economic access that can strengthen Russia’s broader African strategy, especially in the Indian Ocean and southern Africa.
Madagascar
Madagascar would fit into this wider pattern.
If Russia can build a stable, long-term relationship there involving:
- training
- infrastructure
- mining
- maritime cooperation
- affordable arms
Then Madagascar could become a regional example of continued Russian relevance. Russia may also want to increase its influence in the region to gain more influence over the Mozambique channel, which is instrumental to Russia’s project to expand LNG supplies to South Africa. Russia has reportedly also offered discounted fuel to Madagascar, hoping to ease power shortages on the island, which were a primary factor leading to the 2025 coup.
Strategic value
Russia is an important arms supplier in Africa, and its support for Madagascar may expand arms relationships in parts of Africa, as a successful partnership with Madagascar could serve as a demonstration that Russia remains a reliable security partner despite sanctions and the Ukraine war. This will apply especially if Madagascar receives affordable Russian equipment or security assistance and views it positively.
Stronger Russia - Madagascar ties could improve Russia’s standing and networks in parts of Africa, especially in the Indian Ocean and southern African region, although Madagascar alone is unlikely to cause a continent-wide shift toward Russia. Africa is politically diverse, and many countries will continue balancing relations with Russia, China, the West, India, the Gulf states, and others simultaneously. Russia has been building relationships and strengthening ties in countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, the Central African Republic, and Togo through military agreements, arms sales, security assistance, energy projects, and diplomacy.
Military sales to these countries include helicopters, armoured vehicles, rifles and ammunition, air-defence systems, military training, and private military/security support.
Many African militaries already use Soviet or Russian systems:
- Mil helicopters
- T-series tanks
- AK-platform rifles
- Sukhoi aircraft
- air-defence systems
Creating long-term demand for:
- spare parts
- maintenance
- upgrades
- ammunition
- technical training
Russian military equipment has long found favour in Africa as it has several advantages over other supplies, as it is cheaper than Western alternatives, rugged and easier to maintain, familiar to existing militaries, and suited for harsh operating conditions.
