Africa – military often casts a shadow

The African continent is a mixture of vibrant cultures and tremendous potential, yet grapples with a complex reality where governments can be overthrown within a few days. Africa is a tapestry woven with threads of insecurity, political instability, and the lingering presence of military governments. Navigating this intricate landscape requires an understanding of the diverse forces at play.

Africa faces a multitude of security threats, ranging from long-standing conflicts fuelled by resource competition and ethnic tensions to the rise of transnational terrorism and piracy. The continent's vast geographical expanse and porous borders make it fertile ground for the proliferation of small arms and light weapons, further exacerbating insecurity.

Despite these challenges, African countries continue to allocate a significant portion of their resources to military spending. This often comes at the expense of crucial social services like healthcare and education, hindering sustainable development and perpetuating a vicious cycle of poverty and instability.

Military Regimes

The legacy of colonialism and post-colonial power struggles has left a legacy of military involvement in governance. Coup d'états, though less frequent than in the past, remain a recurring threat in some countries, undermining democratic institutions and hindering economic progress.

It is an unfortunate reality that the international community has provided African countries with military training and equipment, but this is often motivated by strategic interests or a desire to combat terrorism. This has in numerous countries led to external forces being able to influence the internal politics of African nations.  

Despite the challenges, many African countries are undergoing military reforms to improve professionalism, and accountability, and ensure civilian oversight. Regional cooperation initiatives like the African Union's Peace and Security Architecture are also gaining momentum.

We look at two countries, one of which has seen a remarkable turnaround, and one that is still plagued by fighting, poverty and a bad economy.

Rwanda

Rwanda's path since the 1994 genocide has been marked by remarkable transformation. The Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), a former rebel group, transitioned into a professional and disciplined military force, contributing to peace and stability. The government, led by former RPF leader Paul Kagame prioritizes economic development and social services, although there are still concerns about political freedoms.

 Mali

Mali, in contrast, has been plagued by instability and conflict for over a decade. A military coup in 2020 further complicated the situation, raising concerns about democratic backsliding. The Malian military, despite receiving significant international assistance, has struggled to contain the insurgency in the north and address internal divisions. On 18 August 2020, President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta was overthrown by the military, a transitional government was formed in October.

But on 24  May 2021, the military arrested the president and the Prime Minister. Colonel Assimi Goïta was inaugurated in June as transitional president. The junta has committed to returning the place to civilians after the elections scheduled for February 2024.
 

 Africa has experienced seven coups since August 2020.

On 26 July 2023, the military in Niger announced that they had overthrown President Mohamed Bazoum. with General Abdourahamane taking over the reins. The military proposed a transition period of "three years" maximum before returning power to civilians.

On 24 January 2022, President Roch Marc Christian Kaboréof Burkina Fuso was ousted from power by the military, Lieutenant-Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba was inaugurated president in February but he was in turn dismissed from his position by the military on 30 September. 2022. Captain Ibrahim Traoré was invested as transitional president until a presidential election scheduled for July 2024.

On 25 October 2021, Sudanese soldiers led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane evicted the transitional civilian leaders, who were supposed to lead the country towards democracy after 30 years of dictatorship of Omar al-Bashir, himself deposed in 2019. Since 15 April 2023, a war due to a power struggle between General Burhane and his former deputy Mohamed Hamdane Daglo has killed at least 5,000 people in the country.

On 5 September 2021, President Alpha Condé was overthrown by a military coup. On 1 October, Colonel Mamady Doumbouya became president. The military has promised to return the place to elected civilians by the end of 2024.

In July 2023, members of Niger’s presidential guard detained President Mohamed Bazoum inside his palace. They appeared on national television saying they were seizing power to end the “deteriorating security situation and bad governance”.

On 30 August 2023, a coup d'état occurred in Gabon shortly after the announcement that incumbent president Ali Bongo Ondimba had won the general election held on 26 August. The coup brought an end to the 56-year-long rule of the Bongo family over Gabon.

Path to a secure future

Africa presents a complex picture regarding military preparedness and defence strengths. While some nations boast potent armed forces, others struggle with limited resources and internal conflicts. Navigating this intricate landscape requires recognising the historical context, analysing power dynamics, and understanding individual countries' unique situations.

African nations need to tackle the root causes of insecurity, such as poverty, inequality, and lack of access to resources, as these are crucial for building lasting peace.

*  Professionalization and Civilian Oversight: Investing in military reform, ensuring civilian oversight, and upholding human rights are essential for building trust and promoting accountability.

* Regional Cooperation: Strengthening regional initiatives and fostering collaboration in addressing shared security threats will enhance effectiveness and counter external influences.

* Sustainable Development: Prioritizing investment in social services and economic development will create a more resilient society, less susceptible to violence and instability.

Military preparedness and strength.

•     Size and manpower: Larger populations often equate to larger militaries, though quality training and equipment matter more than just numbers.

•     Military expenditure: Countries with higher defence budgets can invest in advanced weaponry, technology, and infrastructure, enhancing effectiveness.

•     Training and professionalism: Well-trained, professional forces with good morale and discipline prove more effective than poorly equipped recruits.

•     Domestic Industry and Military Cooperation: Domestic arms production or close sophisticated equipment

•     Geography and terrain: Strategic locations, natural barriers, and diverse landscapes can provide tactical advantages in defending against external threats.

Military strength and influences

Five African nations operate under military governments: Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, Sudan, and Chad.

Egypt has sizeable active personnel, modern weapon systems, and experience in regional conflicts. Algeria and South Africa follow closely, with capable air forces and sizable ground troops. South Africa is ranked as having the 33rd greatest military strength globally – down from 26th in 2022. The country ranks as the 3rd strongest military force in Africa, dropping from 1st in 2022 and is behind Egypt (1st) and Algeria (2nd) on the African continent.

It is crucial to acknowledge that military strength is not the sole indicator of a nation's overall security. Factors like good governance, economic stability, social cohesion, and regional cooperation are equally important in ensuring long-lasting peace and security. Focusing solely on military power can lead to neglecting these crucial aspects, fostering instability, and potentially exacerbating existing conflicts.

Major powers like the US, France, and Russia exert significant influence through arms sales, military training, and peacekeeping missions. Terrorist groups, armed militias, and criminal organisations pose major security challenges across Africa. Combating these threats requires innovative approaches beyond traditional military tactics. Climate change-induced resource scarcity, displacement, and conflict further complicate the security landscape does not apply to civilians.